World-News

ABC 20/20

Thu Aug 31, 2006 02:28

'Last Days on Earth' Change How You See the World AUDIO: http://www.apfn.net/pogo/L001I060830-20-20-last-days-on-earth.MP3

'Last Days on Earth' Change How You See the World http://abcnews.go.com/2020/story?id=2319986

How smart are we as a civilization?

Smart enough to control our destiny and avoid the cataclysms that may end life as we know it?

Watch "Last Days on Earth," a special 2-hour edition of "20/20," Wednesday, Aug. 30, at 9 p.m.

For thousands of years, different religions have warned Earth about Armageddon and the final days.

We are now living in an age where scientists are adding their voices and their evidence in support of end-of-the-world possibilities.

"Last Days on Earth" is a program that could change the way you see your world and yourself.

The world's top scientists, including Stephen Hawking, considered the foremost living theoretical physicist, describe seven riveting scenarios detailing the deadliest threats to humanity.

Some can destroy the planet, others have the ability to render us extinct, and all have the power to destroy civilization.

How likely are they to occur, and what exactly would happen if they did, and could we survive?

"Last Days on Earth" goes beyond science fiction to science fact.

Using state-of-the-art visual effects, it will take viewers on a journey that is both breathtaking and terrifying, from the outer reaches of the universe to the inner world of DNA, with an around-the-globe tour in between.

"Of all the generations of humans that have walked the surface of the Earth — for 100,000 years, going back when we first left Africa — the generation now alive is the most important," said Michio Kaku, professor of theoretical physics at City University of New York.

"The generation now alive, the generation that you see, looking around you, for the first time in history, is the generation that controls the destiny of the planet itself."

"Last Days on Earth" is anchored by Elizabeth Vargas. Rudy Bednar is the executive producer. Michael Bicks is the senior producer.

http://disc.server.com/discussion.cgi?id=149495;article=104120;show_parent=1

By Roger Harrabin
BBC News
August 31, 2006

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5303574.stm

One of America's top scientists has said that the world has already entered a state of dangerous climate change.

In his first broadcast interview as president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, John Holdren told the BBC that the climate was changing much faster than predicted.

"We are not talking anymore about what climate models say might happen in the future.

"We are experiencing dangerous human disruption of the global climate and we're going to experience more," Professor Holdren said.

He emphasised the seriousness of the melting Greenland ice cap, saying that without drastic action the world would experience more heatwaves, wild fires and floods.

He added that if the current pace of change continued, a catastrophic sea level rise of 4m (13ft) this century was within the realm of possibility; much higher than previous forecasts.

To put this in perspective, Professor Holdren pointed out that the melting of the Greenland ice cap, alone, could increase world-wide sea levels by 7m
(23ft), swamping many cities.

Safe limits

He blamed President Bush not only for refusing to cut emissions, but also for failing to live up to his rhetoric on harnessing technology to tackle climate change.

"We are not starting to address climate change with the technology we have in hand, and we are not accelerating our investment in energy technology research and development," Professor Holdren observed.

He said research undertaken by Harvard University revealed that US government spending on energy research had not increased since 2001. In order to make any progress, funding for climate technology needed to multiply by three or four times, Professor Holdren warned.

Last year, the UK's Prime Minister, Tony Blair, held a science conference to determine the threshold of dangerous climate change. Delegates concluded that to be relatively certain of keeping the rise below 2C (3.6F), CO2 levels in the atmosphere should not exceed 400 parts per million (ppm) and the highest prudent limit should be 450 ppm.

In October, at an international conference in Mexico, UK environment and energy ministers will try to persuade colleagues from the top 20 most polluting nations to agree on a CO2 stabilisation level.

Professor Holdren expressed doubt that progress could be achieved because if the US administration agreed that there was a need to limit CO2, this would inevitably lead to mandatory caps. President Bush has already rejected that option.

For more than a year, the BBC has invited the US government to give its view on safe levels of CO2. Our request is repeatedly passed between the White House office of the Council on Environmental Quality and the office of the US chief scientist.

To date, we have received no response to questions on this issue that Tony Blair calls the most important in the world. Professor Holdren called on the US Government to back the UK position.

John Holdren, in addition to his presidency of the AAAS, is a director of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and Professor of Environmental Policy at Harvard University


Informant: NHNE

By Sarah Cassidy

The Independent September 1, 2006

http://news.independent.co.uk/environment/article1223131.ece

The world faces a catastrophic rise in global warming in 2050 unless urgent action is taken to cut human-induced carbon emissions, a leading academic warned yesterday.

Professor Peter Cox, of Exeter University, told the Royal Geographical Society annual conference that temperatures could rise 8C by 2100 because of a "compost effect" which could see carbon dioxide levels increase 50 per cent faster than previously estimated.

Currently, around one quarter of carbon emissions are absorbed by the soil and one quarter by the oceans. It had previously been assumed that these proportions would remain the same. But Professor Cox said that global warming is damaging the soil's ability to absorb carbon emissions.

He said this vicious circle would reach crisis point in 2050 when a key threshold would be passed. After this point the land would begin to release carbon into the atmosphere. He predicted that this "compost effect" would lead to carbon dioxide levels rising from the current 380 parts per million to more than 1,000 parts per million by 2100.

Professor Cox warned that the Amazonian rainforest would be lost unless urgent action was taken to keep carbon dioxide levels below 500 parts per million. Higher levels of CO2 would see rainfall move away from the Amazon basin causing its lush vegetation to die.

In a separate report, the growing threat of climate change to Britain was highlighted yesterday with an urgent call for the reintroduction of salt marshes along the country's coasts and estuaries.

A leading academic said that action was needed to stop flooding of coastal areas as global warming produced higher sea levels.


Informant: NHNE

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/290806_nef_report.pdf [1.7meg]

* * * * excellent graphic on url * * * *

Caribbean 'faces stormier future'

Latin America and the Caribbean face a greater risk of more natural disasters because of environmental degradation and climate change, campaigners warn.

A report by a coalition of environment and aid groups said the region's weather was becoming less predictable and often more extreme.

Evidence showed many areas were more vulnerable because depleted ecosystems were struggling to adapt, they argued.

The groups said efforts to end poverty were being undermined as a result.

The report, Up in Smoke? Latin America and the Caribbean, presented evidence it said showed that the livelihoods of millions of people in the region were at risk, including:

* Increased storm intensity -
* the 2005 hurricane season was "one of the most active and destructive in history" Water shortages -
* changes to glacier melt in the Andes were affecting river flows and threatening water supplies, leading to a greater risk of disputes Illegal logging and deforestation - linked to increased carbon emissions, and leaves area prone to a greater risk of flooding

The report's author, Andrew Simms, from the New Economics Foundation
(Nef), said the findings highlighted how climate change was having an impact on global efforts to eradicate poverty.

"The region has had to deal with highly variable climates for many centuries. It has developed very resilient forms of agriculture based upon high levels of diversity of crops, which are adapted to grow in a wide range of microclimates.

"The danger that now seems to be facing people in the region is that those conditions could become more permanent and more extreme," he said.

Storm brewing

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season saw an unprecedented 27 tropical storms, 15 of which went on to become hurricanes. The most devastating was Hurricane Katrina, which claimed more than 1,000 lives when it struck the US Gulf coast.

A hurricane is a spinning vortex of winds swirling round a eye of very low pressure Warm, moist air is drawn upwards around the eye Cooler dry air is sucked downwards by the low pressure centre Banks of thunderstorms surround the edges The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) had predicted that there would be up to nine hurricanes.

For the 2006 season, Noaa's initial forecast predicted 13-16 named storms, four of which would go on to become "major storms".

In August, however, officials revised their forecast, saying that there would be 12-15 named storms. But this was still above the long-term average of 11.

Uncertainty still remains within the scientific community as to whether there is a direct link between human-induced climate change and increased intensity and frequency of tropical storms.

Overlooked research

Commenting on the coalition's report, US climate change researcher Timmons Roberts, from the College of William and Mary, Virginia, warned that overstating the risks could prove to be counterproductive.

"Some points may be exaggerated or so uncertain as to make scientists uneasy about making such claims, especially about future disasters."

But Professor Roberts, who is currently working in the UK, did agree that the risks facing the region were extremely serious.

Diane Liverman, director of the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University, UK, welcomed the coalition's decision to focus on the region.

"I am sometimes concerned that the understandable focus on African climate and development issues has meant that we haven't paid attention to the millions at risk in other regions of the developing world."

But Professor Liverman, who has studied climate vulnerability in Mexico for the past 20 years, was critical of the report for overlooking research by climate scientists in the region.

"Organisations such as the Inter American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) and researchers in many universities have done a lot of research on climate and environmental change in the region; little or none of which is referenced or used in the report."

Call for action

The coalition, whose 20 members include Tearfund, Greenpeace and WWF, said there were three main challenges that needed to be addressed:

* stopping and reversing further global warming
* how to live with global warming that cannot be stopped
* the need for a "climate friendly" development framework that delivers an equitable share of natural resources

"Currently, we do not have a meaningful emissions reduction target that will prevent runaway climate change, " Mr Simms said.

"We also do not have an idea of the scale of the resources needed to help developing countries deal with it."

He added: "We must apply a climate test to how the world does business. If we don't then we will probably inadvertently make things much worse."

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/5290818.stm

Published: 2006/08/28 23:13:17 GMT

© BBC MMVI

--------

Up in smoke? Weather patterns in the Caribbean and Latin America are changing

With global warming, weather patterns in the Caribbean and Latin America are changing, becoming less predictable and more extreme. Changes include drought in the Amazon, floods in Haiti, vanishing glaciers in Colombia and increased hurricane activity in Central America, the Caribbean and southern Brazil. People are becoming more vulnerable.

Up in smoke? http://www.neweconomics.org/gen/z_sys_PublicationDetail.aspx?PID=226

Published by The Up in Smoke Coalition.


Informant: binstock

By Les Blumenthal

McClatchy Newspapers

http://www.grandforks.com/mld/grandforks/news/nation/15382923.htm

WASHINGTON - With more glaciers than any state in the Lower 48, Washington state has emerged as a bellwether for global warming.

The signs are not encouraging.

A national environmental group recently reported that North Cascades and Mount Rainier are among the dozen national parks most susceptible to climate change.

At Mount Rainier, which has more glacial ice than the rest of the Cascades combined and is among the best studied sites in the nation, the area covered by glaciers shrank by more than a fifth from 1913 to 1994, and the volume of the glaciers by almost one-fourth, the National Park Service says. From 1912 to 2001, the Nisqually Glacier on Mount Rainier retreated nearly a mile.

Since the first stirrings of the Industrial Revolution 150 years ago, glaciers in the northern Cascades have shrunk by 40 percent, and the pace is accelerating. The South Cascades Glacier, one of the most studied in the nation, has lost roughly half its mass since 1928.

In the Olympic Mountains, glaciers have lost about one-third of their mass.

"They are the canary in the coal mine," Ed Josberger, the head of the U.S. Geological Survey's ice and climate project in Tacoma, said of the glaciers in Washington state. "They are changing fast, and this is not good."

The state's official climatologist, Philip Mote, agreed.

"Everything is now retreating, and the smaller glaciers are disappearing," said Mote, a research scientist at the University of Washington, who's guarded in attributing the changes directly to global warming but concedes that the evidence is mounting.

Glaciers are affected by two climatic conditions: snowfall, which adds to their mass during the winter, and warm temperatures, which spur melting in the summer. The amount of snow falling in the Northwest is declining, while temperatures are rising.

During the 20th century, Mote said, temperatures in the region rose about
1.5 degrees Fahrenheit. In western Washington state, Mote said, the increase was even greater, roughly 2 degrees.

Despite some heavy snowfalls in the late 1990s - in the winter of 1998-99, Mount Baker recorded a record snowfall of 1,100 inches - the overall trend is negative.

"The decline in snowfall in the Northwest has been the largest in the West, and it is clearly related to temperature," Mote said.

The glaciers in Washington state aren't the only ones retreating. From the Arctic to Peru and from Greenland and Europe to East Africa, there are reports that glaciers are shrinking.

There are exceptions. Glaciers on California's Mount Shasta, at the southern end of the Cascade range, have been growing, Mote said. Recent studies indicate that glaciers also might be growing in the Himalayas and other Asian mountain ranges.

No one is quite sure what causes these anomalies.

"The signature of human influence on climate is pretty clear on the continental scale and the regional scale," Mote said. But when it comes to smaller geographic areas, Mote said, the picture is unclear.

Other scientists are convinced that global warming has caused glaciers to retreat in the Northwest and elsewhere.

"This is what the models predicted," said Joe Reidel, the park geologist for the North Cascades National Park. "They are melting fast. There can be pauses of five or six years, but they are still shrinking rapidly."

Reidel has been studying glaciers in the North Cascades for 15 years. Scientists use everything from ice-penetrating radar to satellite imagery to on-the-ground observations to track the glaciers. They've been methodically studying the South Cascades Glacier for 50 years and observing glacial changes on Mount Rainier since the late 1800s.

"There is no question glaciers are a dramatic indicator of climate," Reidel said.

The National Park Service has been supportive of his research, Reidel said, but it's harder to find more funding through federal grants.

"Money is getting tougher and tougher to come by," he said.

Reidel thinks the glaciers and the Earth's climate might be reaching a tipping point from which there may be no recovery.

There's more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere now than at any time in the past 20 million years, Reidel said. Carbon dioxide, thought to be a key ingredient in global warming, is emitted by burning fossil fuels such as coal or oil, among other things. Research has shown that none of the other warm periods in the past 20 million years had such a high concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, he said.

"It is clear it is human-induced," Reidel said.

Scientists are still trying to determine what changes the Northwest may experience from global warming. But Reidel said it was clear that stream flows would be reduced as the glaciers shrank, affecting the region's extensive system of hydroelectric dams and salmon and other fish.

Reidel said summer flows in one drainage in the North Cascades had dropped by 25 percent; if the glaciers disappear they'll fall by another 20 percent.

"Some reservoirs get 20, 30 and even 40 percent of their water during the summer from glaciers," he said.

Reidel said no one knew for sure whether Washington state's mountain glaciers would disappear eventually.

"Without a doubt, global warming is real," he said. "We need to get past that debate. People are paying attention to what is happening to the glaciers in Washington state. They could change even more rapidly if we reach a certain threshold."

---

Here are some quick facts on glaciers in Washington state:

-The 25 major glaciers on Mount Rainier collectively form the largest collection of permanent ice on a single U.S. mountain outside Alaska. They cover about 34 square miles or about 1 cubic mile.

-The North Cascades National Park has 318 glaciers, or about 60 percent of the land covered by glaciers in the United States outside Alaska. The park and nearby areas have about 42 square miles of ice.

-Long ago, mile-thick glaciers flowing down from the Olympic Mountains gouged out Puget Sound, isolating the Olympic Peninsula from the mainland. The Olympics have about 18 square miles of ice.

Source: National Resources Defense Council

© 2006 McClatchy Washington Bureau and wire service sources.
All Rights Reserved.
http://www.grandforks.com


Informant: binstock

Ice sheets expected to last centuries could disappear in 25 years, threatening water supplies

John Vidal,
environment editor
Tuesday August 29, 2006
The Guardian http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,,1860206,00.html

View from the top ... Two images of the Upsala glacier in Argentina show the retreat of the ice (top: 1928; bottom: 2004). Photograph: Greenpeace/Reuters

Andean glaciers are melting so fast that some are expected to disappear within 15-25 years, denying major cities water supplies and putting populations and food supplies at risk in Colombia, Peru, Chile, Venezuela, Ecuador, Argentina and Bolivia.

The Chacaltaya glacier in Bolivia, the source of fresh water for the cities of La Paz and El Alto, is expected to completely melt within 15 years if present trends continue. Mount Huascarán, Peru's most famous mountain, has lost 1,280 hectares (3,163 acres) of ice, around 40% of the area it covered only 30 years ago. The O'Higgins glacier in Chile has shrunk by nine miles in 100 years and Argentina's Upsala glacier is losing
14 metres (46ft) a year.

Although a few glaciers in southern Patagonia are increasing in size, almost all near the tropics are in rapid retreat. Some glaciers in Colombia are now less than 20% of the mass recorded in 1850 and Ecuador could lose half its most important glaciers within 20 years.

The rate of glacier retreat has shocked scientists, says a report on the effects of global warming in Latin America by 20 UK-based environment and development groups who have drawn on national scientific assessments. Their study says climate change is accelerating the deglaciation phenomenon.

"The speeding up of the ... process is a catastrophic danger," says Carmen Felipe, president of Peru's water management institute. In the short term, the president says, it could cause overflows of reservoirs and trigger mudslides, and in the longer term cut water supplies.

According to the Colombian institute of hydrology, back in 1983 the five major glaciers in El Cocuy national park were expected to last at least
300 years, but measurements taken last year suggest that they may all disappear within 25 years. Meanwhile, the ice sheet on the Ecuadorean volcano Cotopaxi and its glacier has shrunk by 30% since 1976.

"The [drastic melt] forces people to farm at higher altitudes to grow their crops, adding to deforestation, which in turn undermines water sources and leads to soil erosion and putting the survival of Andean cultures at risk," says the report by the Working Group on Climate Change and Development, which includes the International Institute for Environment and Development, Christian Aid, Cafod, WWF, Greenpeace and Progressio.

Their report, Up in Smoke, says snow and rainfall patterns in South America and the Caribbean are becoming less predictable and more extreme. "East of the Andes, rainfall has been increasing since about 1970, accompanied by more destructive, sudden deluges. Meanwhile, the last two hurricane seasons in the Caribbean rim have caused $12bn (£6.3bn) damage to countries other than the US. Tropical storms are expected to become more destructive as climate change intensifies. Climate change models predict more rainfall in eastern South America and less in central and southern Chile with a likelihood of greater and opposite extremes. The
2005 drought in the Amazon basin was probably the worst since records began."

Rises in sea level are expected to be especially severe in the region over the next 50 years, with 60 of Latin America's 77 largest cities located on the coast. The first hurricanes have recently hit south of the equator line in Brazil. "The net effect ... is to reduce the capacity of natural ecosystems to act as buffers against extreme weather."

"What we are seeing are many more negative and cumulative impacts. The larger the rate of [climate] change, the more the adverse effects predominate. Climate change is set to turn an already rough ride into an impossible one," says the report, which adds that the impact of climate change is "hugely" magnified by existing environmental abuse.

It proposes that Latin American governments do not repeat the mistakes made by past and present North American and European governments. Several countries in the region are proposing a new generation of mega dams which would displace thousands more people and destroy vast areas of the Brazilian Amazon. The new importance of soya, both as a food and biofuel crop, could also devastate the environment, leading to a battle for land between companies.

Large-scale coal, oil, and copper mining not only threaten fragile environments, says the report, but in some cases can physically endanger remaining glaciers and greatly increase climate changing emissions. "The Pascua Lama project on the borders of Chile and Argentina intends to move three glaciers that cover gold, silver and copper deposits. The glaciers sustain the mountain and valley ecosystems and there are fears that toxic wastes used in the mining will contaminate land and water," says the report.

Yesterday, the groups called on rich countries to urgently reduce greenhouse gas emissions and proposed that Latin America and the Caribbean governments be helped to reduce their vulnerability to extreme weather.

"The only option we have, apart from demanding that developed countries take responsibility for the damages that climate change is causing, is to try to neutralise the adverse impacts that are [already] upon us. It is time to rethink the model of international aid," said Juan Maldonado, former Colombian environment minister and president of the UN convention on biological diversity.

Backstory

"With each new flood, drought or hurricane in Latin America, precious gains in poverty reduction are lost. Extreme weather is set to cause massive loss of life in developing countries throughout the region. The international community must invest more in helping poor communities cope with the effect of climate change," said Simon Trace, chief executive of Practical Action.

The world's many thousands of glaciers have been stable or in slow retreat for more than 100 years but since around 1980 they have mostly been retreating drastically. The fastest decline is in the Himalayas, the Arctic, the Alps, the Rockies and the tropics. Most glaciologists believe this natural phenomenon is being accelerated by global warming. The effects of glacier melt are expected to be severe. Hundreds of millions of people in Asia and Latin America are dependent on glacier water. A reduction in runoff will affect the ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows to keep dams and reservoirs replenished. In Norway, the Alps, and the Pacific north-west, glacier runoff is important for hydropower. If all the ice on the polar icecaps were to melt, the oceans would rise an estimated 70 metres (230ft). But even a small melt will affect coastal life.

Informant: binstock

It's not your imagination: your electricity bills have been climbing steadily skyward. This article offers a handy "To Do List" of items to save energy and reduce your energy bill.

http://www.truthout.org/issues_06/082806EC.shtml

People are finally starting to take to the streets to protest climate change. But for those who won't or can't do that, there are plenty of other actions you can take now to damp down climate change. On the top of the list, says Kelpie Wilson, is getting rid of grossly inefficient incandescent light bulbs.

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/082806R.shtml